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'We fed the monster until it blew up ...'
While Wall Street was busy creating the biggest credit bubble of all time, a few renegade investors saw it was about to burst, bet against the banking system - and made a fortune.
From the jungles of the trading floor to the casinos of Las Vegas, this is the outrageous story of the misfits, mavericks and geniuses who, against all odds, made the greatest financial killing in history.
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An indispensable resource for today's active commodity, currency, futures, and ETF trader
In the 2012 Edition of the Commodity Trader's Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch once again teams up with veteran trader John Person to create an essential tool for both professional traders and those just getting started, to help them understand the complex and exciting world of alternatives. Created in a similar fashion to the Stock Trader's Almanac-'trusted for over 40 years-'the Commodity Trader's Almanac is a comprehensive guide featuring monthly strategies, patterns, trends, and trading techniques geared towards the major commodities and currencies, as well as ETFs, futures, and options.
It also contains in-depth insights on various topics of interest to the active trader and investing public; as well as market highlights that cover key supply, demand, and seasonal tendencies on markets including crude oil, ethanol, and precious metals; critical agricultural products such as corn, wheat, and cattle; and foreign currencies like the British pound and the Euro. The Commodity Trader's Almanac also describes how investors can utilize futures, options, and ETFs in their endeavors.
Intended for active traders and investors interested in making the most out of today's commodity, ETF, futures, options, and currencies markets, this guide will make you a better trade in the search for greater profits.
Napoleon Hill, America's most beloved motivational author, devoted 25 years to finding out how the wealthy became that way. After interviewing over 500 of the most affluent men and women of his time, he uncovered the secret to great wealth based on the notion that if we can learn to think like the rich, we can start to behave like them. By understanding and applying the thirteen simple steps that constitute Hill's formula, you can achieve your goals, change your life and join the ranks of the rich and successful.
In this updated edition, Dr. Arthur R. Pell provides examples of men and women who, in recent times, exemplify the principles that Hill promulgated. With the success stories of top achievers such as Bill Gates and Steven Spielberg, he proves that Hill's philosophies are as valid today as they ever were.
Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,3, European Business School - International University Schloss Reichartshausen Oestrich-Winkel, course: Corporate Finance, 82 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: Igniting in 2005, the discussion about highly leveraged transactions conducted by financial institutions became a matter of great controversy in German politics as well as in the media. Fuelled by an influential voice in politics, LBO firms became the face of capitalism's evil by calling them a 'Heuschrecke', an animal much feared in history for its exploitive behaviour and risks to the mediaeval agrarian economy (Die Zeit, 2005). In terms of today's Heuschrecke, according to public voice, downsizing and raiding
represent the major risks attributed. Empirics show that the risk of downsizing in LBOs is falsified and that the occurrence of raids is rather irrelevant in today's buyout universe. However, even if both risks held,
each would exhibit a comparably low impact on the economy as a whole. Contrary, the empirically evident high-impact risk of over-indebtedness in leveraged
transactions is widely neglected. The negligence of this risk-issue is dangerous, particularly with regard to the recent developments in the LBO industry, debt capital markets and the world's economy. First, analysing the latest LBOs conducted, it appears
that the historical failures, such as the buyouts of Revco and RJR Narbisco are widely forgotten, as gearing ratios have become aggressive again. Second, the subprime crisis, which was exported from the US real estate sector into global capital markets, caused
liquidity shortages - AA rated banks were not willing to lend money to their equally rated peers anymore - which led to a credit crisis. This credit crunch provoked that, even though in the US the prime rate has been reduced by 50 bp, and in the Eurozone
the prime rate was not increased as planed, 'money became expensive'; FIBOR, LIBOR and EURIBOR sharply increased and remained high. This resulted in high debt funding costs. Third, taking a look at the world economy, America might face an economic
downturn in the near future with decreasing consumption and increasing inflation. Each of the three aspects alone increases the default risk in a highly leveraged firm. In a scenario where all three jointly appear, the probability of default sharply increases. In addition to the risk named, the threat an LBO imposes on global debt capital markets is evident, therefore, it can not be ignored any longer in Europe. While it was already heavily discussed in America's late 80s buyout-boom, it slowly gains prominence in discussions about LBO transactions....
Seminar paper from the year 2008 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Essen, course: General Economics, 94 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: The subprime mortgage financial crisis is an ongoing financial crisis which was caused by the sharp rise in the US subprime mortgage market that began in the United States in fall 2006 and became to a global financial crisis in July 2007. Rising interest rates increased the monthly payments on newly-popular adjustable rate mortgages and property values suffered declines from the demise of the US housing bubble, leaving home owners unable to meet financial commitments and lenders without a means on their losses. Many observers believe this has resulted in a severe credit crunch, threatening the solvency of a number of financial institutions and marginal banks. Declines in stock markets worldwide, several worthless hedge funds, central bank interventions, contractions of retail profits and bankruptcy of several mortgage lenders are some of the results we saw in this subprime crisis. The crisis was caused by several reasons, e. g. the developments on the US housing market, the insolvency of many American loan takers, the absence of appropriate diligence of the financial institutions and within the created financial assets, the delayed intervention of the regulating authorities and the activities of the rating agencies while evaluating the credit derivatives and securitizations.
The theoretical optimum for an investment is a high return without any risk and without loosing liquidity. The real situation shows that an investor has to match these three points optimal for his own investment strategy. A higher return is always linked to a higher risk and increased uncertainty. And if the money is expended the investor looses a part of his liquidity. Credit derivatives and securitizations are used to separate the risk of credits from the original credit relation. These instruments can be handled on markets for credit risk transfer and have a great impact on credit business. The market for credit risk transfer can be separated into the market for credit derivatives, on which single credit risks or baskets of few similar risks are dealt, and the market for securitizations, which means that a lot of different risks are bundled together to a separate estate and dealt afterwards. The aim of these instruments is to make credit risks dealable and therefore a standardisation with appropriate transparency is necessary.
Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1,0, University of Auckland (Business School), course: Global Business Environment, 8 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This report analyses the impact of the real exchange rate two years beforehand and the GDP on Germany's trade surplus between the second quarter 1993 and the first quarter 2007. It is found that both factors had significant impact on Germany's trade surplus during the analysed period. Use of a piecewise linear regression technique, moreover, identifies changes in the development of Germany's trade surplus over time. A temporary downward shift in the consistent growth trend of Germany's trade surplus between the first quarter 1998 and the fourth quarter 2002 is seen to be due to changes in Germany's fiscal and monetary policy during the introduction phase of the Euro.
As the global economic environment changes the banking sector, banks are positioning themselves in order to compete against one another. Although some banks focus on a particular market niche, the most salient feature of competitive posturing has been a trend toward the consolidation and rapid development of large big banks. The banking sector has experienced rapid consolidation globally, which, to some extent, reflects the general mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the global economy. Mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector appear in the headlines frequently. A recent example is ABN AMRO Holding N.V. (ABN AMRO). This banking group always assumed that it would be on the attacking end of a takeover bid, rather than the receiving end. However, on 23 April 2007 ABN AMRO received a EUR 65.7 billion bid from Britain's Barclays PLC (Barclays), in what could be the biggest banking merger ever. Then two days later an even bigger potential offer came in from a European consortium led by the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), which aimed to dismember ABN. This offer verged on hostility, setting the stage for what emerged to be the longest and most bruising take-over battle in the banking sector's history.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2006 in the subject Business economics - Accounting and Taxes, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Essen, 127 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: In recent years standard setting bodies as well as users such as capital markets have increased their demands for developing external reporting towards a HBR (HBR). Along with the requirement that listed companies located in Europe as of 1st January 2005 should prepare their consolidated financial statement in accordance with International Accounting Standards (IAS), more and more companies all over the world (freely or by obligation) are preparing and publishing their consolidated accounts applying International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
Using international accounting systems like IAS / IFRS with its central principle of 'decision usefulness' makes it possible respectively obligatory to meet the information needs of a HBR by ' ... reducing the information asymmetry between providers and recipients of capital ... ' . 'To be relevant to investors, creditors, and other for investment, credit and similar decision, [IAS / IFRS] accounting information must be capable of making difference in a decision by helping users to form predictions about the outcomes of past, present, and future events or to confirm correct expectations.'
By calling for 'decision useful' information within IAS / IFRS accounting one could ask why the collected information is only used for external business reporting. With its holistic approach, business reporting and its underlying informative basis determined by the principles and rules from IAS / IFRS provides the opportunity to use it as an internal control system in order to support managerial decisions as well. Or, to see it from a different angle, if 'decision useful' information to prepare IAS / IFRS consolidated accounts are already gathered, it is to be questioned how CG can use them within the decision-making processes.
Hence, the main goal of this elaboration is to figure out to what degree and how CG can benefit from 'decision useful' information that holistic business reporting in accordance with IAS / IFRS holds.
Therefore the present thesis, as the title already suggests, primarily deals with the analysis of (1st) what information HBR on the basis of IAS / IFRS accounting provides
and (2nd) to what extent information from holistic business reporting is useful for corporate governance.
Finally, this thesis will draw a conclusion on the analysis whether CG can be based on holistic business reporting in accordance with IAS / IFRS accounting and summarize its new insights in the topics of CG and HBR....
Diploma Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1, University of Vienna (Institut für Finanzwirtschaft), 26 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: In my thesis I examined the applicability of traditional valuation methods to value high growth companies. Consequently I presented and discussed possible modifications to the traditional methods, whereas I demonstratively applied some of the presented concepts in the case study. Considering relative valuation, traditional multiples based on historical financial data are not very useful for valuing such companies, as historical earnings are either negative or have low informational value. In my opinion, the presented concept of forward-looking (earnings) multiples is clearly superior to the traditional approaches using historical financials and also to the proposed modifications, which mostly have to be applied using historical data. The concept of knowledge-related multiples is interesting, although it uses historical financials; it may be useful and deliver accurate results in certain cases, but not especially when valuing high growth companies. Multiples based on non-financial data may only work well if a truly comparable company could be found. However, a multiples analysis should generally not be used for standalone company valuations, but rather to complement a DCF valuation, which is regarded as the more accurate method.
In the second part I examined the DCF valuation and found that the general framework works even for high growth firms; only the estimation of separate inputs requires more effort and modified estimation approaches compared to stable growth companies. The scenario-based DCF approach is considered as the appropriate method to account for high uncertainty in company valuation, as it allows examining the effect of changes in fundamental value drivers, without having to use quite intransparent mathematical models. I also presented some in depth estimation issues for three main steps of a DCF valuation, which proved beneficial for doing the case study.
The case study should demonstrate the specific problems relating to the valuation of high growth companies. By trying to value 'bwin', an Austrian online gaming firm, the case study reveals the deficiencies of traditional multiples and shows how the scenario-based DCF approach can be applied. Although scenario outcomes deliver an even broader value range than the multiples analysis, they allow accounting for the specific circumstances and reveal the possible effect of changes in the key value drivers for the company. The scenario-based DCF approach thus delivers the most valuable results in my opinion....